A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the country and triggered chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates want to engage with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Each composes two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
